China is paying for global imbalances but a concerted effort is key to containing theEuropean debt crises
Whether China and other BRICS members will give a helping hand to European countries thathave been severely plagued by their looming debt crisis is now a hot topic around the world.
China's purchase of European debt would not be a show of generosity. To help extricate hard-hit European countries from their current predicament is tantamount to helping China itself. It isalso the cost China, as an emerging economic power, has to pay for imbalances in the globalfinancial system.
Most Chinese people hold a negative attitude toward buying Italian national debt. Europe'scrisis will put debt buyers in a position of high risk. The return ratio for one-year national debt inGreece increased by 588 basis points to a record 103.84 percent on Sept 12. Markit iTraxx, anindex that traces the sovereign debt of 15 Western European countries, has also reached atwo-year high. All this means that the credit default swap cost for sovereign debt has increasedto a dangerous level.
In an era of financial, economic and information globalization, the confidence and credibilitycrises brewing in Europe will rapidly spread to the rest of the world and cause a vicious cycle ofself-realization. In the wake of the global financial crisis, the global economic and financialpattern is expected to be on an accelerated path of multi-polarization, a trend that calls for theemergence of several world powers.
China and Europe enjoy a high degree of economic interdependence, with the European Unionbeing China's largest trading partner and largest export market. Under this arrangement, thecollapse of sovereign debt in Europe would have a huge impact on China.
For emerging economies, the euro offers a substitute for the US dollar as a settlementcurrency. For example, Iraq, Iran, Russia, Venezuela and other countries have declared theiracceptance of the euro as the currency for their oil transaction settlements. The purchase ofEurope's debt by China and other BRICS countries, a kind of support to the euro, is expectedto help break the dollar-dominated international monetary pattern. It is also an important stepfor emerging countries toward pushing for a multi-polarized global monetary system.
Coming to the aid of Europe will, to some extent, help extricate the world from the "dollar trap."The United States has set up a debt-dependent economic system, and overspending is animportant feature of this. Heavily dependent on borrowing, the US has managed to maintain along-term deficit in its trade and current account aided by uninterrupted circulation of the dollar.Such debt reliance means that the US has a huge impulse to over-issue the dollar.
Emerging countries have been bogged down in the "dollar trap" as a result of the appreciationof their currencies and the inflow of hot money since the eruption of the global financial crisis.As the world's leading currency, the dollar's over-issuance has directly resulted in the drasticdwindling of the wealth of those dollar-denominated assets holders and their interests havebeen seriously compromised. The deterioration of the European debt crisis has accelerated theoutflow of their capital.
According to the Institute of International Finance, private capital flowing to emerging marketsreached $908 billion last year, 50 percent higher than the previous year. The figure is expectedto increase to $960 billion this year and $1,009 billion in 2012. Emerging countries are nowunder unprecedented pressure from capital inflows and thus badly need international monetaryreforms.
The current problem is not whether emerging economies should extend a helping hand to hard-hit European countries, but in what manner. Despite a combined $4.4 trillion in foreignreserves, BRICS members Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa do not have thereserve assets to solve the gaping debt crisis in Europe. For example, Italy alone has a debt of1.9 trillion euros ($2.6 trillion). Under these circumstances, BRICS countries, if they helpEuropean economies, should work with international financial bodies, such as the InternationalMonetary Fund.
Providing liquidity is not the key to resolving Europe's debt crisis. A helping hand from Chinaand other BRICS members cannot fundamentally resolve the structural problems that resultedin the outbreak of the debt crisis. The reason behind Europe's predicament is that its debt hasoutgrown its economic development. Thus, what Europe needs more is investment fromemerging countries into their real economic realms, which, together with their advancedtechnologies and management expertise, will create space for new development and offer timefor it to conduct deep and sweeping structural reforms.
The global financial crisis and the worsening debt crises are the result of the absence of agood global governance mechanism. A global crisis requires global efforts to deal with it. In anera of growing interdependence, countries developed and developing should work together toresolve global crises caused by imbalances.
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